BRAC Meeting – February 10, 2020


Call to Order – 7:30 p.m.

BRAC: Ms. Garrigan-Piela, Mr. Jeffers, Ms. Noeth, Mr. Pratt, Mr. Romanowski
Board/Admin: Mr. Simons, Mr. Edson
Guests: Mr. Tocci (CDRPC)

CDRPC School Enrollment Projections Report

Mr. Pratt introduced Mr. Tocci, Assistant Planner at the Capital District Regional Planning Commission. Mr. Tocci prepared the annual School Enrollment Projections Report for the East Greenbush Central School District. It contains a five-year estimate of student enrollment using historical enrollment trends, grade-to-grade survival multipliers, school district birth data since 2002, housing data, building permits issued, existing home sales since 2014, and anticipated new residential building activity. Survival multipliers more than 1.0 indicate an influx of new students and less than 1.0 reflect a loss of students.

Mr. Tocci reviewed the following sections of the report with the committee:

  • Page 20 – Total enrollment peaked at 4,629 in 2002-2003, hit a low of 4,006 in 2015-2016 and is currently at 4,086 in 2019-2020. This reflects a smaller generation of students in schools.
  • Page 21 – Kindergarten enrollment has varied over twenty years from 276 in 2017-2018 to 331 in 2008-2009. Higher enrollments in kindergarten lead to higher grade numbers in later years.
  • Pages 22, 23, and 24 – Grades K-5  and 6-8 enrollment follow the decline in overall enrollment over 20 years. Grades 9-12 enrollment typically do not follow the declines in overall enrollment.
  • Page 9 – Live birth data from the Department of Health according to school district regions is released annually in October.  A peak of 330 was reached in 2016, which will likely result in higher Kindergarten numbers in the 2021-2022 school year.  
  • Page 10 – Rates of housing growth are consistent throughout the Capital Region.
  • Pages 32 and 33 – The number of permits issued in North Greenbush from 2014-2018 were sizable compared to East Greenbush and Schodack. This appears consistent with enrollment growth in the Bell Top attendance zone.
  • Page 14 – Existing home sales peaked in 2018, although complete data for 2019 was not available at the time of report preparation. BRAC plans a meeting with realtors in the fall of 2020 to determine if a partnership can be made. The meeting could complement efforts under the District’s “Count Me In” initiative.
  • Page 35 – The five-year projection shows steady increases up to a peak enrollment of 4,196 in 2024-2025. The increases are concentrated in grades K-5. The projections are somewhat lower than in last year’s CDRPC report due to declining birth rates in 2017 and 2018. A comparison of CDRPC report projections is presented on page 25.
  • Page 15, 16, 17, and 18 – Five year projections are shown for total enrollment and at grades K-5, 6-8, and 9-12.
  • Page 27 – Enrollment is shown by generation.
  • Page 32, Chart 4-C – No explanation is available for five years missing data in the Town of North Greenbush.

Enrollment monitoring and projections will be critical in the next few years in light of the expansion at Regeneron and building of the Amazon Warehouse in Schodack.

Adjournment –  8:55 p.m.