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BRAC Meeting – February 25, 2019

Agenda
Minutes
CDRPC 2018-19 School Enrollment Projections Report

Call to Order – 7:32 p.m.

Attendance

  • BRAC: Mr. Espinosa, Ms. Garrigan-Piela, Mr. Jeffers, Ms. Noeth, Mr. Romanowski
  • Board/Admin: Mr. Simons, Mr. Edson, Ms. Taylor
  • Guest: Mark Castiglione, Joshua Tocci (CDRPC), Dr. Bordick (CASDA)

CDRPC Enrollment Projection Update

CDRPC is a regional planning resource center serving the Capital Region.   Mr. Castiglione serves as the Executive Director. Mr. Tocci is currently acting as an intern.

CDRPC provides an annual update of enrollment projections for our school district and others in the Capital Region.  The current year report was distributed to committee members. The report uses student enrollment data as of the State Education Department Basic Educational Data System (BEDS) date in October.  Also, CDRPC studies live births, grade to grade survival multipliers (ratios), housing developments, and real estate market data.

The projections do not take into account private school enrollment.  It is only the student count within the seven District buildings. Private school enrollment tends not to vary too much from year to year.

Live birth data is available from the Department of Health at the school district level since 2002.  Recent data has trended upward, particularly in 2016; accordingly, the projection on page 33 shows a significantly large Kindergarten class in 2021-2022.  Kindergarten projections are very difficult to make; the chart on page 19 shows the variance in class counts over a twenty-year period.

The twenty-year enrollment peak for K-12 in the District was in the 1999-2000 year at 4,632 students.  Enrollment was relatively stable until the 2008-2009 year, then dropped by over 10% to a low of 4,006 in 2015-2016, with a rebound to 4,083 in 2018-2019.

Mr. Tocci presented K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 enrollment patterns over a twenty-year period as shown on the charts on pages 20, 21, and 22.

The chart on page 33 of the report presents enrollment growth in the next five years due to higher birth rates and housing developments.  Projected growth is 20 to 50 students per year. The K-5 level is expected to have the highest level of growth. Grades 6-8 will have lower growth than at K-5; grades 9-12 will have a small decline or be flat.  Buildings currently have the capacity to absorb more students at this time.

Areas that could change enrollment estimates and should be monitored for the future include survival multipliers, median household size, live birth rates and housing developments.

The committee requested that CDRPC include building permit data from the Town of North Greenbush next year in the report.  East Greenbush and Schodack are included on page 12 of the current year report.

Mr. Simons introduced Dr. Bordick, who will be coordinating a study related to attendance zones.  He will be working with BRAC members to examine enrollments, housing development data, class sizes and other information.  Projected completion of the study is in December.

Budget Update

Mr. Simons noted that the first budget workshop is on March 13 as part of the regular Board meeting.  He said that the Governor’s Executive Budget only provides the District with an additional $40,000 in operating aid, known as foundation aid.  This small increase is coupled with expiring building aid, causing the District to overall lose state aid funding next year. District staff is compiling the budget packet for Board and resident review.

Adjournment – 8:50 p.m.